Leaving a job? Losing coverage?

COBRA vs. Marketplace vs. Private — run your numbers

Your COBRA election notice shows one number. It's not your only option — and two 60-day clocks started the day your coverage ended. Compare all three paths before you sign anything.

It's on your COBRA election notice (usually the full cost + 2%).
Your best estimate for the whole calendar year, before taxes.
You + spouse + dependents, even those not needing coverage.
Separate with commas.
Lets the tool compare worst-case years, not just premiums.
Do any of these apply to anyone needing coverage? (Be honest — it changes the answer.)

The four clock rules everyone gets burned by

  1. You have 60 days to elect COBRA — and it's retroactive to the day your coverage ended. Nothing happens in those 60 days? You can still elect on day 59 and be covered backwards (you pay the back-premiums).
  2. Losing job coverage opens a 60-day Special Enrollment Period on the Marketplace — you don't wait for November. You can even enroll up to 60 days before the loss so there's no gap.
  3. It's a one-way door. Dropping COBRA later, or realizing it's too expensive in month 4, does not open a new Special Enrollment Period. Miss the 60 days and your next chance is Open Enrollment (Nov 1) — or COBRA actually running out, which does count.
  4. COBRA usually lasts 18 months. It's the same plan you had, at the full price your employer was mostly paying — plus up to a 2% admin fee.

Estimates for the 2026 coverage year, not a quote or an offer of coverage. Marketplace figures use the IRS applicable-percentage table (Rev. Proc. 2025-25), the 2025 HHS poverty guidelines, the CMS standard age curve, and KFF 2026 national averages — the average benchmark Silver premium is $625/mo for a 40-year-old, but state averages run from $401 (NH) to $1,299 (VT), so your real quotes can differ substantially. Alaska and Hawaii use higher poverty guidelines. Private (medically underwritten) plans can decline applicants, exclude pre-existing conditions, and are not required to cover ACA essential health benefits. Daniel Posey, licensed health insurance agent, NPN 20609967. No fees for advice — ever.